So, in less than 4 weeks’ time we will have another set of elections. The European Parliamentary ones (which I will vote in, and vote Labour, but are not the point of this post), and local ones. Here it is Rugby Borough Council up in thirds, with the first elections since the ‘all-out’ poll of 2012 when boundaries were last changed (the changes and the all-out nature mean that direct comparisons are not easy)
Anyway, ward by ward (* denotes an incumbent, bold is the Labour candidate)
Admirals & Cawston
Currently 3 Tories, Labour have been catching up over the years here – Mark Williams only held on by 44 votes in 2012. UKIP did not stand last time, so could make a difference. I predict Labour GAIN, but it will be close.
Gordon Davies (UKIP)
Gwen Hotton (Lib Dem)
Hamish Livingstone (Labour)
Peter Reynolds (Green)
Mark Williams* (Tory)
Benn
Solid Labour seat with over 50% of the vote most years. Labour HOLD
Lorna Lyttle (Tory)
Claire Sandison (Lib Dem)
James Shera* (Labour)
Bill Smith (TUSC)
Steve Wright (Green)
Bilton
The safest Tory seat in the town area. Martin Walton (Tory) is not standing – he only became councillor last year in the byelection caused when David Wright stood down. Despite the merry-go-round, a Tory HOLD.
Michael Avis (Labour)
Chris Cade (Tory)
Kate Crowley (Green)
Lesley George (Lib Dem)
Stephen Roberts (TUSC)
Coton & Boughton
This includes a lot of northern Brownsover, and looks like being a close finish. Another Tory incumbent not standing – David Cranham (about whom more later). I will go out on a limb for another Labour GAIN with a former Conservative standing for UKIP.
Fiona Barrington-Ward (UKIP)
Zoe Reeves (Green)
Jill Simpson-Vince (Tory)
John Slinger (Labour)
Dunsmore
Dunchurch and surroundings. In theory this is a solid Tory seat. But with a staunch anti-development Lib Dem and his wife holding it until he passed away a few years ago, and then a staunch anti-development Tory-turned-Independent winning one of the three seats last time, this could be an Independent GAIN. The Tory standing is the one who lost out in 2012, so Ian Lowe is not defending his place.
Kieren Brown (Labour)
Deepah Roberts (Ind)
Ian Spiers (Con)
David Wolskehl (Green)
Eastlands
My own stomping ground, but it will not be me standing here for Labour. I have decided to pioneer elsewhere, and let someone who really wants to win have a go. He has a chance, but the Lib Dems are putting all their resources in. David Cranham is standing for the Tories in a seat where they’ve been in 3rd for a while now. So clearly he’s out of favour. I’d say, unfortunately, a Lib Dem HOLD (but again a reduced majority over Labour).
David Cranham (Tory)
Phil Godden (Green)
Rob Jonson (TUSC)
Dale Keeling* (Lib Dem)
Steve Weston (Labour)
Hillmorton
All three main parties contend for this one (which makes me wonder why UKIP don’t chance their arm here), with the Tories usually ahead. Labour are the main challengers and caught up with the same candidate in a by-election last year. Too close to call, but if I have to I think a very close Tory HOLD
Nigel Allen* (Tory)
Barbara Brown (Labour)
Tim Douglas (Lib Dem)
Tim McKenzie (Green)
New Bilton
Labour held and again pretty safe. Steve Birkett won a byelection in late 2012 after another Labour councillor moved away for work. Should be a Labour HOLD with over half the vote.
Steve Birkett* (Labour)
Charlie Hull (Tory)
Roy Sandison (Green)
Newbold & Brownsover
The other safe Labour seat. Brownsover South alone used to be very close, but the new seat was pretty solid last time. Dunsmore’s current Tory councillor, Ian Lowe pops up here, not defending his Dunsmore seat. Labour HOLD
Lorna Dunleavy (Green)
Chris Holman (Lib Dem)
Ian Lowe (Tory)
Ramesh Srivastava* (Labour)
Paddox
As much as I would love to win, this is the safest Lib Dem seat in town. I do hope to reduce the majority a bit though, from second. Lib Dem HOLD
Greg Lyttle (Tory)
Amber Merrick-Potter (Green)
Noreen New* (Lib Dem)
Owen Richards (Labour)
Revel & Binley Woods
This contains some of the edges of Coventry (Hyacinth Bucket country), and like most areas outside the town of Rugby is pretty solid Tory. Of all of them, this is about the best chance for Labour, and it will be interesting to see if UKIP can pick up votes here too. Tory HOLD
John Birch (UKIP)
Doreen Cox (Labour)
Belinda Garcia* (Tory)
Roger Hill (Green)
Rokeby & Overslade
This is a true marginal – it is currently the only ‘split’ ward, returning 1 Labour (who topped the poll) and 2 Tories. The Lib Dems were not far behind. Kam Kaur is another Tory not defending her seat. Another close one. Would like to see a Labour GAIN
Julie A’Barrow (Tory)
Laurence Goodchild (Green)
Bill Lewis (Lib Dem)
Bill Scott (Labour)
Julie Weekes (TUSC)
Wolston & the Lawfords
Mainly rural and so likely to be Tory, even though yet again the incumbent, Claire Watson, is not standing. The UKIP candidate is a former Independent councillor and perennial campaigner, which may give them their best result in the Borough. Tory HOLD
David Ellis (Tory)
Pete McClaren (TUSC)
Emma Nuttall (Labour)
Ellie Roddick (Green)
Pat Wyatt (UKIP)
Wolvey & Shilton
Right in the northern corner of the Borough, this is the only single-member ward up this year. The incumbent is defending their seat for the Tories, despite a public spat with the Humph over planning last year. Tory HOLD
Rob Bevin (Labour)
Chris Pacey-Day* (Tory)
Louisa Taylor (Green)
SUMMARY
My predictions (which are to be taken with a large dose of salt) give 3 Labour Gains and 1 Ind Gain, would bring a Hung Council (with the Tories one short of a majority):
21 Tories
13 Labour
6 Lib Dems
2 Ind
What is interesting is that there are four Tory councillors who are not defending their seats. Two of those have popped up as candidates in seats they are not likely to win, so it’s not exactly a ‘chicken run’. None of them appear to be particularly old so I don’t think it’s retirement. Are these signs that the local party are not happy with some of their representatives, or that certain councillors are lacking confidence in themselves?
In terms of candidates, Labour and the Tories are both fielding full slates of 14, one in each ward. As are the Greens, but they are not really gaining popularity based on the last few years of results. The Lib Dems have 8, which is not a good sign for them. TUSC (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) have 5, UKIP have 4, and there is one Independent.
[edited on 28th April as I had David Wright as the Tory in Bilton not defending their seat, rather than Martin Walton]
The middle of the line 
April 27, 2014 at 21:26
A nice post, albeit one where you are slightly optimistic about Labour chances in some seats I think!
I rather suspect Labour will take Coton and Boughton, I also think the Lib Dems will take Rokeby and Overslade because their candidate is a very doughty local campaigner. I think Admirals will be a leap too far, I do concur with you that Hillmorton will remain Tory.
Dunsmore is a tricky one to call because Independent candidates tend to either fly or sink. I have no idea what will happen here, but I will say a Tory hold.
One ward where I think we could see a surprise is Revel and Binley Woods. The presence of UKIP will alter the dynamics and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Labour running the Tories close.
The big story for me is that five Tory councillors are essentially standing down (Kaur, Lowe, Cranham, Watson and Walton). It doesn’t say much for their view of Humphrey’s leadership.
If you are right (and I am wrong) we would see a “Hung” Council. Here’s a question for you: would the opposition let Humphrey continue as Leader in this circumstance?
April 27, 2014 at 23:32
You still have Lib Dems there? We haven’t really had them for years now and this year they are only contesting 5 of the 13 vacancies. Not a sight of Greens here this year but we do have 11 UKIPpers standing, most of which were Tories this time last year, and a few other circumstances I can’t really discuss in public.
I am not brave enough to make any firm predictions about what will happen. I’m sure there will be a few surprises. It is even possible that I might not be as papery a pioneer as we all thought during the selections.
April 28, 2014 at 10:41
bearandragged staff – While Bill Lewis is a dogged campaigner, he came 4th in the Bilton byelection last year, and stood in the 2012 all out election in Rokeby & Overslade, and came 6th (so marginally ahead of one Labour candidate, but 50 votes behind 5th place and over 100 behind the elected spots. I don’t detect the Lib Dems being more popular now than 1 or 2 years ago, even if Bill is a local personality.
Skuds – yes we do have Lib Dems. Compared to Crawley they were stronger back in 2009, with about 8 councillors. None of them have (so far as I’m aware) done a Gordon Seekings.
I have seen some of the rumours flying around in Crawley. Seems the Tories and ex-Tories (UKIP seems to be more of a vehicle for their grudges there) are going to tear each other apart. I think the Tories who may feel in the right (what with the course of the allegations last year) will find that it doesn’t actually help them.
April 28, 2014 at 11:58
Oh, as far as I can tell Helen Walton will still be there – whether she will defend her Coton & Boughton seat when it is up next year, I don’t know.
April 28, 2014 at 22:22
Helen Walton’s husband, Martin Walton, is the Councillor I refer to. He is giving up his Bilton seat for no obvious reason.
April 29, 2014 at 18:36
Ah, I see my mistake. I forgot that David Wright was the one who stood down last year to trigger the byelection (which I stood in, ooops!), and Martin Walton was the winner.
So he has lasted a whole year!
(will edit the post)
May 26, 2014 at 13:18
Ok, post brought back up. I removed it for a few days leading up to the elections as I didn’t want to be accused of interfering. They were also personal predictions, not those of the Labour Party locally.
I got 11 right… But the three I got wrong were where I predicted Labour gains. Ah, well, another triumph of hope over experience.
When I find my old spreadsheet of results and get the time, I can do my post-election round up. We have an interesting set-up, albeit with the Tories still in the majority (down to 4). One ward has a member from each of the main parties. UKIP had strong results but were not that close to any wins.