Dunchurch & Knightlow byelection

LOWE, Ian Stanley (Con) 832*
AIRD, Robert Turner (Lib Dem) 682
MCNALLY, Robert Peter (Labour) 149
HOUGEZ, George (Green) 20

Spoiled 2

Turnout 1685 32.8% (source: Rugby BC)

Well, PLH was pretty close with his predictions. Turnout was just under 1700 and about a third. The majority was exactly 150, the Labour vote was only 1 away from his predicted 150. The Lib Dems and Tories got about 30 votes more each. The only real difference was that the Green vote was 20 rather than 100. Looking back, the Greens have been in decline across the Borough, and particularly in Dunchurch & Knightlow, where in May they got only 64 votes on a turnout of around 80%.

Compared to May, there hasn’t been much movement between the parties, none moved by more than 2% in share of the vote. The swing from LD to Con was 1.25%, and that tallies with the general trend in the seat – it’s usually a 2-horse race between the two, but the Lib Dems only won it in recent years with a Ravenhall on the ballot, and the Tories have consistently led otherwise. Labour came in a distant third with about 9% (as in May), which is still an improvement on the 2006-2009 results (c. 6%). As mentioned before, the Greens are in decline, having taken third place in 2007, they are now on just over 1% of the vote.

A disappointment for Rob, who was an excellent candidate. Let’s hope he will be standing somewhere where a win is in sight in May.

One Response to “Dunchurch & Knightlow byelection”

  1. PLH Says:

    My take on this election is that in terms of vote share the Tories will be disappointed and the LD pleased. The Tories got less than 50% in a seat that is traditionally safe for them. The LD’s didn’t lose ground and maintain this as a marginal despite a horrendous national picture.

    Craig Humphrey will probably view this as evidence that his behaviour won’t lose the local Tories any votes. My feeling is that the people who he needs to worry about aren’t the motivated 32% who came out to vote but the 50% who voted at the GE but not now. They might have seen his behaviour and deserted the Council Tories while he is leader.

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